Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention; C.De Franco & C.O.Meyer PART I: FORECASTING HARM The Coastline of The Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction; D.Omand Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between 'Intelligence Failure' and 'Warning Failure'; J.Goldman Foresec: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project; V.Brummer , C.Burnley, H.Carlsen, A.Duta, B.Giegerich & R.Magoni Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support; F.Wagner Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime; T.Van Der Beken PART II: COMMUNICATING AND LEARNING FROM WARNINGS Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War; C.De Franco & C.O.Meyer Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioners Perspective; W.Shapcott Responding to early flood warnings in the European Union; D.Demeritt & S.Nobert Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organizational Culture and Disaster Prevention; M.S.Gerstein & E.H.Schein PART III: RESPONDING TO WARNINGS Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective; C.Crossin & J.Smither From the 'Neurotic' to the 'Rationalising' State: Risk and the Limits of Governance; H.Rothstein, O.Borraz & M.Huber Ilos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis; G.Tett Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance; T.F.Huertas Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to 'Foresight for Prevention' in an Age of Complex Threats; W.H.Fishbein Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks; C.O.Meyer & C.De Franco