Monetary Policy in the European Monetary System

1 Introduction.- 2 The origins, design and working of the European Monetary System.- 2.1. The origins of the EMS.- 2.2. The design of the EMS.- 2.3. The working of the EMS.- 3 “Leaning against the wind” in the EMS: Did it work? An analysis of the period from 1979 to 1988.- 3.1. Introduction.- 3.2. An exchange market pressure model of the EMS.- 3.3. Assessing foreign exchange intervention: Methodology.- 3.4. Data.- 3.5. Results.- 3.6. Summary and conclusions.- Appendices.- 4 “Leaning against the wind” through interest rate management: The EMS in the period from 1979 to 1988.- 4.1. Introduction.- 4.2. Interest rate management and foreign exchange market effects.- 4.3. Methodology and data.- 4.4. Results and conclusions.- 5 Monetary autonomy in the EMS.- 5.1. Introduction.- 5.2. Assessing monetary autonomy.- 5.3. Data.- 5.4. Results.- 5.5. Summary and conclusions.- 6 The discipline hypothesis: What role for the EMS?.- 6.1. Introduction.- 6.2. The “tying-one’s-hands” model of discipline.- 6.3. Some theoretical problems with the EMS discipline hypothesis.- 6.4. The EMS discipline/credibility hypotheses: Empirical evidence.- 6.5. The record of the unemployment/inflation trade-off.- 6.6. The EMS as a device for self-imposed discipline.- 6.7. Summary and conclusions.- Appendices.- 7 In search of a credible EMS.- 7.1. Introduction.- 7.2. Svensson’s “simplest test of target zone credibility”.- 7.3. Improvement of EMS exchange rate credibility.- 7.4. Summary and conclusions.- 8 Summary and conclusions.- References.- List of figures.- List of tables.