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Predicting the Unknown

The History and Future of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence

Paperback Engels 2023 9781484295045
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Samenvatting

As a society, we’re in a constant struggle to control uncertainty and predict the unknown. Quite often, we think of scientific fields and theories as being separate from each other. But a more careful investigation can uncover the common thread that ties many of those together. From ChatGPT, to Amazon’s Alexa, to Apple’s Siri, data science, and computer science have become part of our lives. In the meantime, the demand for data scientists has grown, as the field has been increasingly called the “sexiest profession.”

This book attempts to specifically cover this gap in literature between data science, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI). How was uncertainty approached historically, and how has it evolved since? What schools of thought exist in philosophy, mathematics, and engineering, and what role did they play in the development of data science? It uses the history of data science as a stepping stone to explain what the future might hold.

Predicting the Unknown provides the framework that will help you understand where AI is headed, and how to best prepare for the world that’s coming in the next few years, both as a society and within a business. It is not technical and avoids equations or technical explanations, yet is written for the intellectually curious reader, and the technical expert interested in the historical details that can help contextualize how we got here.

What You’ll Learn
-Explore the bigger picture of data science and see how to best anticipate future changes in that field
-Understand machine learning, AI, and data science
-Examine data science and AI through engaging historical and human-centric narratives

Who is This Book For
Business leaders and technology enthusiasts who are trying to understand how to think about data science and AI

Specificaties

ISBN13:9781484295045
Taal:Engels
Bindwijze:paperback
Aantal pagina's:264
Uitgever:Apress
Verschijningsdatum:1-7-2023
Hoofdrubriek:IT-management / ICT
ISSN:

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Inhoudsopgave

Preface
Author’s note to the curious reader

Prologue

Chapter One – Where are we now? A brief history of uncertainty
Not all uncertainty is created equal

Chapter Two - Truth, logic and the problem of induction
The first black swan

Chapter Three - Swans and Space Invaders
Occam’s razor, space invaders and lizard people

Chapter Four - Probability: to Bayes, or not to Bayes?
Frequentist or Bayesian?
The formulation of Bayes’ theorem
After Laplace

Chapter Five - What’s Maths Got to do with it? The Power of Probability Distributions
Other Distribution Models
Issues with this view of uncertainty
Bounds and limits

Chapter Six - Alternative Ideas: Fuzzy Logic and Information Theory
Information Theory – Measuring Uncertainty

Chapter Seven – Statistics: the Oldest Kid on the Block
Descriptive vs Inferential Statistics
Hypothesis Testing: Significant or Not?
What the p?
Statistical modelling: A useful abstraction

Chapter Eight - Machine Learning: Inside the Black Box
Data Science and History of Machine Learning
Choose Your Learning Type: Supervised, Unsupervised, Reinforcement, or Other?
The Bias-Variance Trade-Off
Machine Learning vs Statistics: Why the ‘Dumb’ Approach Works
Machine Learning Shortcomings

Chapter Nine - Causality: Understanding the ‘Why’
How to Approach Causality?
Causality in our Mind

Chapter Ten - Forecasting, and Predicting the Future: The Fox and the Trump
A brief history of forecasting
Forecasting in practice: Newton and the madness of men, Trump, Brexit, and losing money through mathematical modelling
How to do forecasting: A story of foxes and hedgehogs

Chapter Eleven - The Limits of Prediction (part A): A futile Pursuit?
Learning theory: what can we know about what we don’t know?
Monte Carlo Simulations: What Does a Casino Have to do with Science?
Chapter Twelve - The Limits of Prediction (Part B): Game Theory, Agent-based Modelling and Complexity (Actions and Reactions)
Agent-based Modelling: Crafting artificial Worlds
Complexity Theory: Simulation vs the Limits of Prediction
Studying Complexity is a Complex Endeavour
Learning from Complexity: The Limits of Computation are the Limits of Uncertainty

Chapter Thirteen - Uncertainty in Us: How the Human Mind Handles Uncertainty
Uncertainty and our Mind
Uncertainty and our Brain

Chapter Fourteen - Blockchain: Uncertainty in transactions
The Internet of Trust
How Blockchain Works
From Crypto-Anarchism to Drug Trafficking: The unconventional Beginnings of an interesting Technology
I Can’t Trust you, but I Can Trust the Blockchain

Chapter Fifteen - Economies of Prediction: A New Industrial Revolution
Uncertainty brokers
Industries of incomplete Information
Prediction Industries and Automation
The global Economy against Uncertainty

Epilogue: The Certainty of Uncertainty

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