Regime Transitions, Spillovers and Buffer Stocks

The macro disequilibrium model for Switzerland presented in this study grew out of a research project which was generously financed by Swiss Natio­ nal Science Foundation. I am indebted to Prof. Hans Wtirgler and Prof. Heidi Schelbert for encouraging and supporting this work in many ways. The present book is the revised version of a paper that was accepted as a "Habilitations­ schrift" by the University of ZUrich. Part of the research leading to this book was done during a stay at Princeton University, where I benefited from a stimulating environment, the gratuitous use of facilities and the helpful advise of Richard E. Quandt. Earlier disequilibrium studies for Switzerland were discussed in various seminars (Princeton, Universite de Montreal, C.O.R.E., 1988 Conference on European Unemployment in Chelwood Gate, 2nd Conference on Disequilibrium Econometrics at INSEE, 1989 European Spring Meeting on Macroeconomics in Paris) and published in the 'European Economic Review' and 'Recherches Eco­ nomiques de Louvain'. Numerous people - including A.S. Blinder, L. Salvas­ Bronsard, J.H. Dreze, S.M. Goldfeld, C. Gourieroux, P. Kooiman, J.P. Lambert, G. Laroque, H.S. Rosen, H.R. Sneessens" J. Waelbroeck and anonymous referees of the two journals - provided constructive comments on these earlier papers. Their suggestions - as well as the critical remarks by a referee of Springer 'Lecture Notes' - are partly reflected in the present book.