Circular Business Models

1.      Mankind vs. Reality. 10The Science of Problem Solving. 11

References. 12Part One – Business and Organizational Aspects of Circular Economies. 13

2.      Development as a Process of Organization.. 13

The Organization of a Circular Economy. 15

A Development Over a Century. 17References. 19

3.      The Author’s Journey. 20

Earlier Thoughts on Sustainability, Circular Economy, and Transformation.. 21

Sustainability. 21

Circular Economy. 22

Technology Development, Business Transformation, and Peak Oil 23

References. 23

4.      The Circular Economy and Business Challenges. 25

Understanding Innovation and Business Development 26Imminent Threats. 28

Crossing the Chasm – from Idealistic to Demanding Customers. 30

Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming vs. Resource Depletion.. 31The Experience Curve. 32

References. 33

5.      Complexity – The Tightly Woven Fabric of Society. 34Complexity in Modern Society. 34

The Increasing Specialization in the Linear Economy. 36

Increasing Specialization of the Circular Economy. 37References. 38

6.      Could Resource Shortages Cause Problems?. 39

Complex Development 41

A Development in Steps. 42

Driving Change. 46

A Collaborative Effort 46

A Systems Perspective. 47

References. 477.      Multiple Helix Collaboration for the Development of a Circular Economy. 48

A Multipe-Helix Innovation System.. 48

The Role of Governments. 49

Research and Training. 51

Non-Government Organizations. 52

Civic Society and the General Public. 53Company and Public Sector Procurement 54

References. 558.      Managing Change. 56

Change Management 58

Examples of Roles. 60Early Phases of Transformation.. 60

The Savings Paradox. 61

Dismantling Obsolete Systems. 63

Mind-Set and Behaviour Change. 64

Leading Through Change. 64The Resource Based View of Business Strategy. 66

References. 68Part Two – Challenges by industry and business sector 69

9. Local Production and Distribution Systems. 69

The Current Situation.. 70Transformation to Local Production and Distribution Systems. 70

The Development of Local Markets. 71

Efficient Systems for Local Production.. 72

Local Value Chains. 73

Local Food Production.. 73Volume Growth.. 74

Secondary Qualities. 76

The Role of Large Firms. 77

Customers Form Industries. 78

Steps to Change. 78Step 1: Local Stand-Alone Concepts. 79

Step 2: Local Production and Distribution Concepts. 79

Step 3: Integrated Local Value Chains. 80

Step 4: Volume Competition.. 81

Step 5: Local and Circular Concepts Dominate. 81Disruptive Aspects of Change. 81

From Global to Local Production and Distribution.. 82

Procurement Strategies. 82

A New Focus. 83

Opportunities for Local Production Offered by Digitalization.. 84Changing Customer Preferences. 85

Step 1: Indifferent Majority. 86

Step 2: Emerging Preferences. 86

Step 3: Widespread Adoption and Volume Growth.. 86

Step 4: Circular Majority. 87Step 5: Preferences for Local and Circular Concepts Dominate. 87

References. 87

10. Sharing and Extended Use. 88

The Present Situation.. 88

Sharing Models. 88Growth Opportunities and Patterns of Use. 90

The Product as a Service. 92

Inexpensive Alternatives. 92

Potential Growth Areas. 92

Integration.. 92

Flow.. 92

High Value. 93Genuinely Circular?. 93

Steps to Change. 94Step 1: Pilot Sharing Models. 95

Step 2: More Customers Prioritize Sharing. 95

Step 3: Sharing becomes the new normal 96Aspects of Disruptive Change. 96

Extended Use. 97Services Targeted at Consumers. 97

Business-to-Business. 99

Steps to Product Life Extension.. 100

Step 1 – Occasional Extended Use. 101

Step 2: Behaviour Change and Systems in Place. 101Step 3: Extended Use Becomes a Priority. 102

Step 4: Extended Use Becomes the Norm.. 103

Aspects of Disruptive Change. 103References. 103

11.       Standardization and modularization.. 104

The Development and Growth of Lean Production.. 105

Design and Re-design.. 108Step 1: Pilot Modularization.. 109

Step 2: Training and research.. 109

Step 3: Widespread adoption.. 109

Step 4: Legislation and procurement requirements. 110

Step 5: Modularization Becomes the Norm.. 111Aspects of Disruptive Change. 111

References. 11112. Recycling and Upcycling. 112

Corporate Re-manufacturing. 113

Materials Recycling. 114

Materials Difficult to Recycle. 114

Steps to Recycling and Upcycling. 115Step 1: Recycling and Incineration.. 115

Step 2: Increased Materials Recycling. 116

Step 3: Increased Upcycling. 116

Step 4: Increased Use of Biologically Based Materials. 116

Aspects of Disruptive Change. 116References. 116

13.       Biologically based materials. 117

Existing value chains. 118

Transforming Plastics. 118

Plastics from Wood. 121

Competition with Food Production.. 121The Volume Issue. 121

Steps to New Materials. 123

Step 1: Pilot Introduction.. 123

Step 2: Volume Growth.. 124

Step 3: Resource Constraints. 124Step 4: Reduction and Restructuring of Use of Materials. 124

Aspects of Disruptive Change. 124

References. 125

14.       Transportation systems, renewable fuels and energy efficiency. 126

Scarcity and Climate Change. 126

Reduced Dependence on Oil?. 128The British Fuel Crisis. 129

The Challenge of Transportation.. 129

A Web of Interrelationships. 135

Saving Power in Existing Applications. 136

Steps to the Transformation of Transport Systems. 138Step 1: Early Adopters and Innovators Buy. 138

Step 2: Volume Growth.. 138

Step 3: Electric Car Dominance. 139

Step 4: The Last of Petroleum Cars. 140

Steps for Heavy Vehicles. 140Market Analysis and Programme Planning. 142

References. 14615.       Construction, Infrastructure, and Digital Technologies. 147

Examples of Circular Models in Construction Related Areas. 148

Healthy and Sustainable Buildings. 148

Flooring. 148

Digitalization.. 149

Examples of Circular Business Models Based on Digital Technologies. 149

The Main Direction of Digital Development 149

Brief, But Important 150

References. 15016.       Life Sustaining Resources and Technologies. 151

Health Care. 151

Utilities. 152Work. 153

Risk Management 153References. 154

17.       Financial Innovations. 155

Financial Risk Taking. 156

Financial Innovations Support Circular Development 157

Crowd Funding. 157

Complementary Monetary Systems. 158Cryptocurrencies. 159

Reforming the Global Economy?. 160

Aspects of Disruptive Change. 161

References. 162

18.       General Purpose Technologies as the Basis for Transformation.. 163

The Organization of Hypocrisy and Organization Man.. 165Is Rapid Transformation Possible?. 167

The Transformation of US Industry to War Production.. 168

The Marshall Plan.. 169The Apollo Program.. 170

Venice and the Preparations for the Fourth Crusade. 170

The Volume Issue Revisited. 171

References. 172

Part Three – A Way Forward. 17319. Risks and Logical Fallacies. 173

Great Expectations. 174

Some Numbers. 176

Peak Oil 176

Peak Gas. 177

Phosphorous. 177

Rare Earth Elements. 178

The Paths of Peak Resources. 178

Understanding and prioritizing. 180Decision Theory. 182

Fallacies of Experts and Decision Makers. 183

Failure to Realise That Society is Vulnerable. 183

Failure to Recognize the Scale and the Systemic Aspects. 184

Failure to Understand Markets. 184Mistaking the Problem for the Solution.. 184

Mistaking a High-Level Description of the Solution for the Transformation Strategy and Plan   185

References. 18520. Planning The Way Forward and Reality Check. 186

Steps to Circular Economic Flows. 186

Step 1: Trying Out Circular Models on a Small Scale. 186

Step 2: Evaluation of Progress and Simulation of Scale-Up. 186

Step 3: Avoidance of Conclusions. 186Step 4: Prioritization.. 187

Step 5: Development of Strategies. 187

Reality Check. 187

Increasing Complexity Complicates Change. 187

Few Short Term Incentives to Change. 188Little Experience of Resource Shortages. 188

Focus on a Description of Energy and Fuel Resources as a Sources of Pollution.. 188

It Takes Time to Calibrate World-Views and Resource Needs. 188Will Decisions Be Made in Time?. 189

21.       Paradigms, at Last 190

Scientific Revolutions. 190

The Circular Economy as a Paradigm Shift 191

Merging Paradigms. 192

References. 193

Epilogue  194