The Future of European Gas Markets

Introduction 7

1. The Demand Side: What Role for Gas in the EU Decarbonisation Path? 9
– The EU’s Quest for Decarbonisation: From Kyoto to the 20-20-20 Targets 11
– The EU longer term vision of decarbonisation: the 2050 Roadmap 14
– Towards COP-21: the 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy 17
– Towards the achievement of the 2030 renewables target: the way ahead 20
– The EU decarbonisation path and the (unwelcome) renaissance of coal 26
– Exploring the future role of gas in the EU decarbonisation path 30
– Towards a more balanced and secure decarbonisation path 35

2. The Supply Side: New Challenges and Opportunities ahead 43
– The EU domestic gas production outlook and the rise of import requirements 45
– The EU-Russia gas partnership after the 2014 Ukraine crisis 51
– The outlook of other EU traditional pipeline suppliers: Norway, Algeria, Libya 60
– The prospects for global LNG markets and their repercussions on the EU 68
– New supply potential: the Eastern Mediterranean and the Southern Gas Corridor 79
– The EU security of gas supply strategy 96

Conclusions 102

Appendix
Commision Communication of 25 February 2015 A Framework Strategy for a Resilient Energy Union with a Forward-Looking Climate Change Policy, COM)2015 80 final 111