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Superforecasting

Paperback Engels 2015 9781101905562
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Samenvatting

From one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters.”

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Specificaties

ISBN13:9781101905562
Trefwoorden:forecasten, voorspellen
Taal:Engels
Bindwijze:paperback
Aantal pagina's:352
Uitgever:Random House
Druk:1
Verschijningsdatum:1-8-2015

Expertrecensies (1)

Freija van Duijne | 9 februari 2016
Superforecasting, the art of prediction by Tetlock and Gardner, is definitely the number one must-read for futurists this winter. Especially because the topic of prediction can generate a lot of discussion. Despite the public belief of the future industry as a crystal ball business, futurists in general are reluctant about making predictions.Lees verder

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Over Philip Tetlock

Philip Tetlock is hoogleraar psychologie aan de universiteit van Pennsylvania. Hij doet onderzoek naar en publiceert over politiek en psychologie. Zijn revolutionaire inzicht kwam voor het eerst naar voren in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, dat in 2005 verscheen.

Andere boeken door Philip Tetlock

Over Dan Gardner

Dan Gardner is een journalist en schrijver die zich tot expert op dit gebied ontwikkelde. Van hem verschenen onder meer de succesvolle populairwetenschappelijke titels Future Babble (2012) en Risk (2009).

Andere boeken door Dan Gardner

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