How to Future

List of figures and tables xi
About the authors xiii
Foreword xv
Acknowledgements xix
Introduction 1
Futures are there to be built 3
Resetting leadership 5
Tested tools for change 6

1 Different futuring for different needs 11
Different modes of thinking and mental modelling 14
Different understandings of time 16
Different languages of expression 17
Different intensities of focus 18
Different levels of comfort with uncertainty 19
Different adherence to the official future 20
Different forms and levels of agency 21
Why we future 22
The future in businesses and the business of the future 25
We are all futurists now 26
Futuring as a structured approach 28
Using open tools for open questions 29
Phases of understanding 30
How this book is structured 33

2 Getting started: scoping 37
Three tiers of scoping 39
What’s in a future? 43
Whose future is it anyway? 46
Understanding internal culture 47
Assembling the right team for the scope 53

3 Sensing and scanning: finding signals of the future now 59
Sensing as anticipatory capacity 61
Horizon scanning as intentional practice 64
From what to where: choosing scanning sources 77
Managing the scan: directing a firehose 84

4 Sense-making and mapping: turning data and insights into
patterns and themes 95
A framework for understanding and assessing 96
Adding analysis criteria: time, certainty and impact 100
Mapping futures 107
Reflecting on analysis 114

5 Scenario development: combining patterns and themes to tell
strategic stories 119
Rough draft roadmapping 120
From storylines to scenarios 131
Reflecting on mapping and storytelling as a gateway 140

6 Storytelling and prototyping: creating ways for others
to engage with your future stories 143
Materializing futures 145
Bringing situations to life with objects 151
A word about ethics 159

7 Assessing effectiveness: tools for monitoring and measuring
fitness of approach 163
Assessing specific impacts 164
Measuring the distance from the future 171
Looking back at measuring 176

8 What to do next? Building a futuring culture 179
Victory conditions? 180

9 Conclusion 195
Improving reality 199

10 Further reading 201
On futures, foresight and framing explorations 202
On sensing, scanning and researching futures 203
On sense-making, mapping and analysing futures 204
On scenarios and telling stories about possible futures 205
On designing, prototyping and engaging others with futures 207
On assessing effectiveness 208
On uncertainty, innovation, strategic design and futures 209

Notes 211
Index 219