Trendsurfing

PREFACE 10
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 14
GLOSSARY 17

INTRODUCTION 21

PART 1: WHAT ARE TRENDS? 27

CHAPTER 1: THE CHANGE PROCESS 32
1. Our world is changing faster and more drastically 32
2. Wildcards cause disruptive change 36
3. Different kinds of wildcards 38
4. Comparing wildcards: the plague and corona 40
5. Disruptions influence our lives 45
6. Possible wildcards for the future 55
7. Do people like change? 64

CHAPTER 2: ACTION MOTIVES, VALUES, NORMS, AND EXPECTATIONS 68
1. Abraham no longer cuts the mustard 68
2. Values as basic principles for our actions 73
3. Norms for value-rational action 77
4. High expectations cause increasing levels of stress 79

CHAPTER 3: THE SOCIETAL CONTEXT 80
1. The new acronym: IPSETEEP 80
2. Our multi-modal identity 82
3. Populations in motion 90
4. The social-cultural playing field 110
5. The environment under pressure 118
6. Our technosphere 128
7. The economy and work 133
8. Energy 142
9. Political, institutional and judicial trends 144
10. Interim conclusion 147

CHAPTER 4: TRENDS AS THE MOTOR FOR INNOVATION 148
1. Innovation 148
2. What about creativity and inventions? 150

CHAPTER 5: OTHER TREND CONCEPTS 152
1. The anti-trend or counter-trend 153
2. Coolhunting 157
3. Hypes, crazes or fads and hits 161
4. Fashion and style(s) 166

CHAPTER 6: HOW DO TRENDS, HYPES AND FADS EVOLVE? 168
1. Who are the trend creators? 168
2. Where do trends originate from? 171
3. How do trends and hypes evolve? 172
4. Are trends cyclical? 192
5. Using trends to gain competitive advantage over your rivals? 199

PART 2: YOUR OWN TREND RESEARCH 209

Step 1. Where can you find trend information? 212
Step 2. From trendspotting to analysis 225
Step 3. Trend analysis and trend implementation 229
Step 4. Positioning trends in the trend pyramid 231
Step 5. Trend tools for innovation 242
1. The ‘What if… then this’ scenarios 242
2. The future impact diagram 249
3. The Futureproved Trendsurf Model© 253

APPLICATION OF THE TRENDSURF MODEL 260
Case 1. Tourist time travel 260
Case 2. Living in a terracotta house 281

CONCLUSION 305
BIBLIOGRAPHY 312
ENDNOTES 316